Pré-Publication, Document De Travail Année : 2026

Can we make it? Prospective Life Cycle Assessment of building structures

Résumé

Despite advances in low greenhouse gases (GHG) structural typologies, data gaps persist regarding how industrial changes change their long-term impacts and if they can reach specific mitigation thresholds required. This study presents a prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) of building structures, in which background industrial sectors data are modified using the premise framework. The objective is to evaluate how alternative socio-economic and climate pathways influence the future environmental performance of concrete, steel, and timber structure typologies. To this end, multiple combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are use to evaluate the potential future GHG emissions of building structures. The results reveal substantial variability in environmental impact reductions by 2050 across scenarios. Under the most optimistic scenario (IMAGE–SSP2–RCP1.9), GHG emissions decrease by 73% for concrete structures, 62% for steel structures, and 55% for timber structures relative to 2020 GHG emissions. These scenario reductions are driven by the deployment of carbon capture and storage technologies, particularly benefiting cement and steel production. In contrast, a less optimistic pathway (IMAGE–SSP2–RCP6) yields lower reductions, with impacts decreasing by 5% for concrete and timber structures and 6\% for steel structures. Across scenarios, decarbonisation is primarily attributable to material production processes and energy mix for optimistic scenarios. The analysis for all scenarios identifies impact transfers affecting toxicity, land use, particulate matter formation, and mineral and metal resource categories. A comparison to French carbon budgets of buildings shows that the choice of structural materials and background changes will not be enough to stay under the threshold of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels suggesting the necessity of using different structural systems and/or reducing construction volumes. Future work should include foreground technological changes such as novel materials, reuse of construction products and structural optimisation.

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hal-05628438 , version 1 (20-05-2026)

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  • HAL Id : hal-05628438 , version 1

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Pierre Navaro Auburtin, Myriam Saadé, Manuel Manthey, Mathilde Louërat, Jean-Luc Martin, et al.. Can we make it? Prospective Life Cycle Assessment of building structures. 2026. ⟨hal-05628438⟩
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