An analytical approach for the prediction of debonding initiation between a rubberised cement-based overlay and old concrete substrate under monotonous mechanical loading was applied. Based on the linear elastic fracture mechanics, a model has been developed taking into account the interlocking between two crack surfaces in the overlay. Assuming that the debonding initiation just occurs after the crack cutting the overlay layer reaches the overlay-substrate interface, the stress intensity factor of the debonding tip can be calculated, allowing prediction of stress fields near the interface debonding tip. Then with a criterion of debonding initiation and propagation depending on the interface tensile strength, the load associated could be determined and might be interesting for the design of thin bonded cement-based overlays. The adequateness of this analytical approach was verified by both experimental data and finite element calculations. It has been used to show the relevance of a cement-based material with low modulus of elasticity combined with a high residual post crack strength to achieve sustainable repairs. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.